"Knowledge will forever govern ignorance

 and a people who mean to be their own governors

 must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives."

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Negative Campaign Backlash?

Kean, Ferguson experience a nasty backlash to negativity according to an article in the Star-Ledger by Brad Parks. This theory is backed up with an interview with one voter, Lori Murray, a pharmaceutical worker from Fanwood:

"I was the middle-of-the-road voter," Murray said in between bites of a hummus salad at The Mall at Short Hills. "I was the one who could be swayed."

Except, Murray said, all she heard were attack ads from Kean and another candidate she was considering, her 7th District congressman, Mike Ferguson.

"All the negative campaigning really got to me," she said. "I thought the ads were so ridiculous, it made me vote against whoever was running them."
Not convinced? Parks uses quotes from a Seton Hall University political scientist and unnamed pundits, along with a reference to exit polling to give credence to his theory.

"That's a safe Republican district. It never should have been as close as it was," said Joe Marbach, a Seton Hall University political scientist. "Most of the time congressional incumbents seek to marginalize their opponents. Mike Ferguson chose a campaign strategy that ended up giving Linda Stender great name recognition."

And pundits who followed two of the closest races -- the Senate and the 7th District -- say a slew of negative ads ended up backfiring against the candidates who ran them.

What's more, exit polling done by students at the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University found significant dissatisfaction with Ferguson. Nearly half of all Stender votes were, in fact, protest votes -- 45 percent of Stender voters said they were voting against Ferguson.
Does any of this prove negative ads ended up backfiring against Kean who lost or Ferguson who won?

And while the poll did not ask a specific question about the "Stender is a spender" slogan, Marbach said there was little question it backfired.
Little question? Based upon what, no data and personal opinion? Perhaps it was the “doubling-dipping pension padder, too” part of the “Stender the Spender” slogan that resonated with voters, who knows. It could have been the Dump Mike blog, a year of “robo calls” and the 20 months of negative campaigning against Ferguson that cost Stender the election or made the race as close as it was.

Another article in the Ledger, Exit poll offers clues to Stender's defeat, would tend to discredit the “nasty backlash” theory, at least as it applies to the Ferguson campaign ads. This article quotes the Rutgers University political science professor Jane Junn, who conducted the exit poll:

Slightly more than 80 percent of those voting for Ferguson said they were voting for him, while 55 percent of those voting for Stender said they were voting for her.

The number one reason Democrats gave for going to vote on Tuesday was "party control of congress."

Looked at it another way, Junn said, 45 percent of those voting for Stender were saying they were "voting for anyone but Ferguson," which also reflected the depth to which national issues and Ferguson's alliance with President Bush was playing out at the polls.

The first myth shattered by the students' exit polling was that Republican women would cross party lines to support Stender. It didn't happen, Junn said.

Women who considered themselves independents were split right down the middle, 50-50; it was actually independent men who were somewhat more likely to go for Stender by a margin of 52-48, Junn said.
Parks and Marbach must have flushed down the memory hole the way Linda Stender conducted her campaign – it was all negative. She began by calling the President a liar and informing voters her first priority would be a vote on impeachment. Forgotten is the Linda Stender for Congress mailer based on an old gossip column that ABC News called “false and fabricated”.

Now take a look at Linda Stender’s campaign website, it is all negative:









Linda Stender ran a negative campaign because it was the only way she could have won. She nearly did. Bob Menendez ran a negative campaign and won – “Standing Up” - against Bush, against Iraq, against “privatization” of Social Security, against oil companies – against, against, against.

Kean and Ferguson also ran against. Kean against political corruption and tax increases. Ferguson against a tax and spender who just happened to be a “double-dipping pension padder, too”. Maybe the jingle and slogan worked.


At 2:16 PM, Blogger Dino P. Crocetti said...

Candidates like Linda Stender and Paul Aronsohn had tons of money pumped into their campaigns to help Bob Menendez at the top of the ticket which is exactly what Republicans should've done for Kean with Vince Micco, Leigh Ann Bellew, John Guarini and Jose Sandoval. If either Stender or Aronsohn had won, it merely would've been an added bonus.

The Democrats engaged in a strong grassroots campaign effort that Republicans in New Jersey have long forgotten how to do. If you are a Republican in New Jersey and you are not self funded you are nobody and that's why we have hit rockbottom.

Tom Wilson is an excellent Chairman and he needs new management to help him revive the Republican Party in New Jersey.

When Republicans run a candidate with the last name Kean in New Jersey in a statewide race against a criminal and STILL can't win, something is horribly, HORRIBLY wrong!

At 5:25 PM, Blogger Susan said...

""All the negative campaigning really got to me," she said. "I thought the ads were so ridiculous, it made me vote against whoever was running them."

How ridiculous is that. How sad people vote with their emotions and not their intellect.

I do not advocate the vitriolic politcal ads, but come on, we are supposed to vote on the issues people, not the ads.

At 5:57 PM, Blogger Ken Adams said...

Dino said: "Tom Wilson is an excellent Chairman and he needs new management to help him revive the Republican Party in New Jersey."

Pardon me for saying so, but has Tom managed to win anything, or improve the party's position statewide? He seems like a nice enough guy, but from my point of view he was nearly silent through the last few weeks leading up to the election. I was getting multiple daily emails from the national party, but nothing from the state party since September 28th! It's like they abandoned the field at the end of the third quarter.

At 10:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I called Kean HQ to ask for a lawn sign 2 times and was met with unprofessionalism and a general lack of enthusiasm but they took my name and address to mail me a sign. The 3rd time I called, I was simply given my county Kean person's phone number. When I called him, he told me I could drive down to County campaign office and pick up my sign (30 minutes away). When I told him that was not reasonable, he said he would drop a sign off. I never got my sign, but I still voted for Kean. Maybe the campaign should have been more professional and appreciative of those offering support.

At 7:55 AM, Blogger Dino P. Crocetti said...

While Republicans in New Jersey have failed to win statewide in recent years, I don't think it's fair to make Tom Wilson the scapegoat. He can only work with the cards he's dealt and as I said earlier, he needs better management around him.

I think the answer for Tom is to start brining youth to the State Committee. There is a lot of eager and ideolistic Republican youth in Hudson County and they need to be shown that they are being heard and that they matter to the party. I had the pleasure of meeting Fernando Uribe who currently chairs the Hudson County Young Republicans and he does a great job.

It has become abundantly clear that the NJGOP in its current state is a dinosaur. Until the party is revived, I don't think we'll ever really get a sense of what Tom Wilson REALLY brings to the table.

At 9:39 AM, Blogger JoanBasil said...

Hi - I found your site from NY Times Empire Zone blog.

I'll give you my own piece of anecdotal evidence from over the summer when several friends were doing phone banking for Linda Stender in the 7th District. They got a lot of people saying they were "definitely" voting for Tom Kean Jr. but when it came to Ferguson, the reply was a little explosion of annoyance at the "Linda Stender is a Spender" TV and radio campaign that Ferguson was already running last summer. They were "definitely" voting for Stender.

I question whether anyone outside of his own family and friends voted "for" Mike Ferguson. Look back at those positive ads he ran, "Our children are our most important whatever," "Making a difference for children." I mean, thats mush. People are cynical about politicians showing you pictures of themselves with children. Doesn't everyone groan inside when they've got a cute little black child front and center? We're living in a state where DYFS (Department of Youth and Family Services) gives children to foster parents who feed them cardboard and we all know it and go about our lives. The politicians pat themselves on the back for getting some earmark at a hospital that they can use in their reelection ads.

Linda Stender is going to run again in 2008; the district is getting less Republican, obviously. This loss was by 1.70% and what was it last time, like 15 points? Maybe the Dems will do a little redistricting and lop off some of Hunterdon or Somerset and add a little Newark. They should; the Supreme Court says its OK to redistrict any time.

At 10:48 AM, Blogger Enlighten said...

Hi Joan,

You wrote: “I question whether anyone outside of his own family and friends voted "for" Mike Ferguson.” You must have overlooked the Rutgers exit polling data that found “slightly more than 80 percent of those voting for Ferguson said they were voting for him, while 55 percent of those voting for Stender said they were voting for her”. We cited this information in our post and included a link.

Frankly, we don’t notice the skin color of children in ads, political or otherwise. We just see children. Why do you “groan inside when they've got a cute little black child front and center”? Obviously if a child is little they have to be placed in the front or no one would be able to see them. Do you believe black children shouldn’t be seen or included in ads?

You wrote: “We're living in a state where DYFS (Department of Youth and Family Services) gives children to foster parents who feed them cardboard and we all know it and go about our lives.” Just some anecdotal evidence we’ve come across, DYFS mismanagement is one of the reasons some people voted against Stender. DYFS is a state program. New Jersey’s state government is 100% controlled by Democrats – Governor, state senate and assembly. The taxpayers of New Jersey spend hundreds of millions each year to help these kids and expect the government to spend the money on the children, not on abusive foster parents, incompetent state workers and political cronies. Linda Stender is a member of the assembly and has been in a position to do something about the problem, apparently knowledgeable voters held her accountable.

You wrote, “Linda Stender is going to run again in 2008”. For that to happen doesn’t the “double-dipping pension padder” have to run for the Assembly again in 2007? Let’s see, DYFS as you point out is a disaster, Stem cell research was never funded, instead we saw hundreds of millions wasted on pork projects, property taxes will still be the highest in the nation and the state will still be bankrupt. What a wonderful record, Stender the tax and spender will have to offer voters in the 22nd LD.

You wrote: “Maybe the Dems will do a little redistricting and lop off some of Hunterdon or Somerset and add a little Newark. They should; the Supreme Court says its OK to redistrict any time.” Yea, it’s okay with the Supreme Court as long as it’s okay with a states’ constitution. It just so happens it’s not okay with New Jersey’s constitution – Article I, Section II. “After each federal census taken in a year ending in zero, the Congressional districts shall be established by the New Jersey Redistricting Commission.” And of course you do understand a “little redistricting” would change more than just the 7th.

At 3:49 PM, Blogger The Big Professor said...

America has finally begun her enlightenment!
I must laugh at all of the «right-wing» pundits crawling over one another to give the latest theory on why the Republicans lost their majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives. They will offer reasons ranging from the unpopularity of G. W. Bush and his war on the Iraqi people to the preposterous concept that the Republicans weren't conservative enough!
What they fail to see; indeed they likely fail to admit this to themselves, is incredibly obvious: America, while still lagging behind the rest of the world, is becoming more progressive. While this has been going on for some time, it is now bearing fruit.
Republicans are being defeated at historic levels in all regions of the nation.
While here in the Northeast or on the West Coast that has been the order for years, the Midwest and Mountain States are now following «the coasts» into the light. Soon, the Republican Party will be limited to such backward areas as the rural South; as the people of an area become more educated, they will eschew racism, abandon their warlike and xenophobic ways, and the Republican Party will wither for want of support.
America will become less divided politically, and a new era of harmony will dawn in Washington!

At 9:37 PM, Blogger Trochilus said...

In addition to all the other pertinent comments you have cited regarding JoanBasil's "wishes" for altering the 7th Congressional District, her comment that,

"Maybe the Dems will do a little redistricting and lop off some of Hunterdon or Somerset and add a little Newark,"

suffers from the additional technical shortcoming that no part of Newark is currently contiguous with the 7th Congressional District.

Sorry! No can do, Joannie!

Perhaps she could convince the next Redistricting Commission to include additional potentially Stender-leaning chunks of Linden or Union Township to the 7th, although in the past the courts have frowned on efforts to intentionally gerrymander a district in order to achieve a particular partisan result. Chris Jackman found that out in the 1980's. And she'll also have to convince the 13th member -- the one chosen jointly by both sides -- that there is no partisan motive involved.

At 5:52 AM, Anonymous Robert said...

I think everyone must read this.
book holder | coupon template | fuck my wife


Post a Comment

<< Home

 Contact Us

  • Email Us
  • Blog Roll Us!



  • Atom Feed
  • Bloglines
  • Feedburner
  • Feedster
  • Add to Google
  • Add to My MSN
  • Add to My Yahoo
  • News Is Free

    Recent Posts

  • New Jersey Elects No Change
  • Election Day Odds and Ends
  • Robo Calls
  • Time To Vote
  • In The Hands Of The American People
  • Bob Menendez Involved In Car Towing “Gate” II
  • New Jersey Congressman Rush Holt on Voter Fraud
  • Can New Jersey Afford More Of Them?
  • "The less you know, the more they lie"
  • Bob Menendez Hires A Criminal Defense Attorney – V...


  • November 2004
  • December 2004
  • January 2005
  • February 2005
  • March 2005
  • April 2005
  • May 2005
  • June 2005
  • July 2005
  • August 2005
  • September 2005
  • October 2005
  • November 2005
  • December 2005
  • January 2006
  • February 2006
  • March 2006
  • April 2006
  • May 2006
  • June 2006
  • July 2006
  • August 2006
  • September 2006
  • October 2006
  • November 2006
  • December 2006
  • January 2007
  • February 2007
  • March 2007
  • April 2007
  • May 2007
  • June 2007
  • August 2007
  • September 2007
  • October 2007
  • November 2007
  • December 2007
  • January 2008
  • February 2008
  • April 2008
  • November 2008
  • January 2009
  • August 2009
  • September 2009
  • February 2012

    Online Journals

  • National Review

  • Opinion Journal

  • Real Clear Politics

  • Weekly Standard

  • Blog Roll

  • A Blog For All
  • Althouse
  • Ankle Biting Pundits
  • Barista of Bloomfield Avenue
  • Betsy's Page
  • Blue Crab Boulevard
  • Blogs For Condi
  • Bob the Corgi
  • Brainster's Blog
  • BuzzMachine
  • Captain's Quarter's
  • Cinnaman
  • Coalition of the Swilling
  • CWA-NJ
  • Dino's Forum
  • Daily Mail
  • Don Surber
  • DynamoBuzz
  • eCache
  • Exit 4
  • Fausta's Blog
  • GOP Bloggers
  • Instapundit
  • Joe's Journal
  • Kate Spot
  • Kausfiles.com
  • Little Green Footballs
  • Michelle Malkin
  • More Mnmouth Musings
  • Parkway Rest Stop
  • Patrick Ruffini
  • Polipundit
  • Power Line
  • Right Wing News
  • Roger L. Simon
  • The Blue State Conservatives
  • Riehl World View
  • Red Jersey
  • Right, Wing-Nut!
  • Sid in the City
  • Tiger Hawk
  • The Truth Laid Bear
  • Tim Blair
  • Wizbang

  • Sid in the City

    Majority Accountability Project


    New Jersey Blogs


  • 11th and Washington

  • A Blog For All
  • A Planet Where Apes Evolved From Man?!?
  • Armies of Liberation
  • Atlantic Highland Muse
  • Attack of the 15.24 Mete

  • Barista of Bloomfield Avenue
  • BeLow Me
  • Big Windbag
  • Blanton's and Ashton's
  • Blue State Conservatives
  • Burning Feathers
  • BuzzMachine

  • Clifton Blogs
  • Coalition of the Swilling
  • Cobweb Studios
  • CoffeeGrounds
  • Constitutional Conservative
  • Confessions of a Jersey Goddess
  • Corzine Watch
  • Crazy Jackie
  • Cresting Acrocorinthus
  • Cripes, Suzette!

  • Daniella's Misadventures
  • Did I Say That Out Loud
  • Dojo Mojo
  • Dossy's Blog
  • Down the Shore
  • DynamoBuzz

  • eCache
  • Enlighten-NewJersey
  • Eye On Hoboken
  • Exit 4
  • Exit Zero
  • Extreme-Psychosis

  • Fausta's Blog
  • Fausti's Book Quest
  • Fractals of Change
  • Frenchtown NJ Blog

  • GiggleChick
  • Gregg Gethard's Amazing Personal Journey
  • goethe re scape

  • Hoboken Rock City

  • IamBillPower
  • If this is paradise, I wish I had a lawn-mower
  • Imaginary Therapy
  • Inadmissible Evidence

  • Jersey Beat
  • Jersey Perspective
  • Jersey Side
  • Jersey Style
  • Jersey Writers
  • Joe's Journal

  • Karl's Corner
  • Kate Spot

  • Laughing At The Pieces
  • Likelihood of Confusion
  • Liss Is More

  • Mamacita
  • Mary's Lame Attempt at Fame
  • Media in Trouble
  • Michael Carroll
  • Mister Snitch!
  • MucknMire
  • My Life as a Rabid Blog
  • My New Jersey

  • New Jersey Eminent Domain Law
  • NJ Conservative
  • NJ Fiscal Folly
  • New Jersey For Change
  • New Jersey Weblogs
  • NJ Spoken Word
  • Northeast Corridor

  • Parkway Rest Stop
  • Philly2Hoboken.com
  • Poetic Leanings
  • Poor Impulse Control
  • Professor Kim's News Notes
  • Property Tax NJ

  • Rain Angel
  • Riehl World View

  • Shamrocketship
  • Shipwrecks
  • SloppyDawg
  • Sluggo Needs a Nap
  • SmadaNeK
  • Static Silence

  • Tami,The One True
  • Tammany on the Hudson
  • Tequila Shots For The Soul
  • The Art of Getting By
  • The Center of New Jersey Life
  • The Daily Fry
  • The Duc Pond
  • The Jersey Shore Real Estate Bubble
  • The Joy of Soup
  • The Mark(ings) of Zorro
  • The New Wisdom
  • The Nightfly
  • The Opinion Mill
  • The Pink Panther
  • The Political Dogs
  • The Rix Mix
  • This Full House
  • Tiger Hawk
  • Tomato Nation
  • Toxiclabrat
  • Twisty

  • Unbillable Hours
  • Usdin.Net

  • Where Is The Remote
  • Wine Goddess

  • Xpatriated Texan

  • Links

  • NJ Governor
  • NJ Legislature
  • Bob Menendez Information

  • Blog Rings

  • Blog Explosion
  • Blog Directory
  • Blogsnow
  • Blogwise
  • Blogstreet
  • Blogshares
  • Blogarama
  • Blog Digger
  • Daypop
  • Globe of Blogs
  • Blog Search Engine

  • Ecosystem Status

  • Who Links Here