"Knowledge will forever govern ignorance

 and a people who mean to be their own governors

 must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives."

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

New Jersey Seventh Congressional District Primary

For the past six months or so, voters in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District have been bombarded with recorded messages blaming Congressman Mike Ferguson for every conceivable real or contrived problem in the country. The “netroots” have been working overtime to Dump Mike since February of 2005. All of this work for the benefit of the Democrat candidate, Linda Stender.

So what are we to make of these primary results?

2006 Primary – New Jersey 7th Congressional District
Mike Ferguson (R) – 16,230
Linda Stender (D) – 8,407

2004 Primary – New Jersey 7th Congressional District
Mike Ferguson (R) – 13,262
Steve Brozak (D) – 8,906

You might expect to see an increase in support for the Democrat, Stender and a drop off in support for the Republican, Ferguson. Yet, we find Stender with 5% fewer votes and Ferguson with 22% more in the 2006 primary.

Not that we think Ferguson should become complacent about the race, but it’s hard to see where all the enthusiasm for Stender is coming from.



4 Comments:

At 8:30 AM, Blogger PN said...

Apparently the voters aren't as rabid as the Daily Kos crowd over at Blue Jersey.

NJ Fiscal Folly

 
At 9:14 AM, Blogger Honest Abe said...

It seems everytime I log onto Politics NJ, they're covering Stender again.

 
At 9:40 AM, Blogger njgalaxie73 said...

Linda Stender is nothing more than a fly on a horse's ass. All the horse has to do is shake its tail and it knocks the fly off.

Politics NJ is a campaign tool run by Hudson County Democrats who will pick and choose what they cover to see their agenda succeed in areas that are important to them.

I'm also convinced that Wally Edge is a Pseudonym for Bob Torricelli. Who else on this earth would seriously say that Torricelli shouldn't be ruled out as a Vice Presidential Candidate!? PFFFFFFFFFTTTTT!!! Nice try Torch, you can stop french kissing yourself now!!

 
At 11:12 AM, Anonymous Nathan said...

There's one big flaw in your argument -- 2004 was a Presidential year with a higher Democratic turnout in the primary than 2006, so the number of votes would be down.

Not saying you are off base, but you should do the same comparison with 2002 and 2006 to get a better sense of where things are in an off-year election.

Also, there was a real primary at the Senate level for the Republicans, so turnout for Rs was much higher than for Ds. Not that Ginty had a chance, but there were signs all over the district for him. Ginty and Kean voters would go for Ferguson.

That's not to say that your idea is wrong, but that the analysis demonstrating it is flawed. This is, for all the Democratic hopes, a tough race for us.

Thanks for the link, too. :-)

 

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