Jon Corzine's Big Surprise

Professor David Rebovich doesn’t think Doug Forrester can win the election because:

New Jerseyans are not about to support a Republican for Governor simply because of the bad job that the Democrats have done in Trenton. Nor are they willing to accept the claim that since Jon Corzine helped bankroll the campaigns of his fellow Democrats the last few years, he is directly responsible for the fiscal problems, high taxes, and ethical lapses in the State House.

Upwards of 60 percent of New Jerseyans do not like the direction the state is headed ... And, more New Jerseyans tell pollsters that they plan to vote for Democrats for Assembly than Republicans even though the Democrat-controlled state legislature is viewed favorably by only 30 percent of likely voters.

Rebovich believes Forrester can’t pick up enough votes in the suburbs to offset the urban vote because:

The underlying reality is that in the last decade the state's suburbs have become more Democratic. Many former urbanites, from diverse ethnic backgrounds and with college degrees in hand, have migrated to the suburbs where there are well-paying professional jobs, good public schools, and a quality housing stock.

These new suburbanites, many of whom are registered as unaffiliated voters, brought with them an array of attitudes that incline them to support Democratic candidates. These attitudes include the following. Belief in an activist government that is willing to address social and economic problems. Support for quality programs in such areas as education, the environment and open space, public safety, and children's and senior services. And, moderate to liberal views on abortion, gun control, and gay rights.

However, Rebovich believes if Corzine wins the election, he will be unpopular because:

But if Corzine is to be elected the state's next governor, it behooves him to start laying a foundation for the ambitious policy agenda he often mentions on the stump but rarely details. If not, New Jerseyans may be in for a big surprise when a Governor Corzine makes his inaugural address and proposes his first budget.

And Corzine himself may be in a for a big surprise when citizens, including many who voted for him, reject the new governor's policy agenda as something out of left field that was never adequately explained to them.

In the closing weeks of the campaign, it looks like it would pay for Corzine to run a few less ads attacking Forrester and a few more explaining what he really plans to do as governor.

So in a nutshell, Rebovich believes a majority of New Jerseyans will vote for Corzine because they reflexively vote for Democrats. Voters will blindly elect Corzine because they haven’t a clue about his policy agenda and the huge spending and tax increases he will spring on the state as Governor. How very comforting.

Don’t look for Corzine to run ads explaining what he “really plans to do as Governor”. He has spent tens of millions of dollars to fool the public into electing him and Corzine isn’t about to ruin his chances with the truth.

We will continue to hope the voters in New Jersey are more intelligent than Rebovich seems to believe. In the privacy of the voting booth the majority of voters might just decide to break their habit and vote for change. The surprise may very well be on Jon Corzine.