The New Jersey Election Map
Patrick Ruffini offers a unique analysis of New Jersey’s 2004 election results and invites readers to correct his analysis or add anything he may have missed. He’s eager to make his thread “sort of the official Wiki on this subject.”To the right is a map Ruffin produced showing Bush vote gain in New Jersey by municipality.
"What does it mean for the Governor's race? That's an open question, but if Forrester can win by simply turning out the people who voted for Bush (47 percent of a presidential vote is well over 50 percent of a gubernatorial vote). His best targets in terms of holding newer members of the Republican coalition should be the blue-collar communities in Monmouth County and seniors in South Jersey who don't feel any particular attachment their jet-setting U.S. Senator. "
Posted by Enlighten-NewJersey @ 12:32 PM
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2 Comments:
We always said Forrester could win. But we haven't seen any evidence of the type of campaign that will win. By rights, Corzine should walk away with it.
If Forrester becomes governor it will only be because media and blogs got a message out. We already know site traffic to blogs commenting on election issues will spike between Labor Day and Election Day. We'll need to see greater spikes than we saw in previous elections for blogs to be a factor. It could happen, with the Carnival and NJWeblogs creating a defacto community of local opinion.
While our state's political policies and tendencies cannot be continued, I am trying to get my head around what it would mean for a candidate who didn't really 'win' the election, to win an election. Usually the winners can come in and govern because the arm-twisting and alliances that worked during the campaign work in running government. That won't be the case here - Forrester would going to be outnumbered, and wouldn't be in a strong position to govern. He doesn't even seem to have particularly strong bonds to the bloggers and media who will get him elected (if that happens).
I'm not saying it's impossible to do, but I know of no one who has ever turned out as many people to vote for governor as for president - although I'd say that Arnold Schwartzenegger might be close.
If that's a plan, it's too much like the Democratic plan to capture the White House - let's get everything just perfect and it'll work. Plans that depend on perfection rarely work, in my experience.
XT
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